Declan Ganley must be wondering where it all went wrong.
A year ago, Libertas seemed unstoppable. But it’s a party in name only, without grassroots membership, unable even to supply a copy of its constitution (I know, I asked).
Libertas is in trouble. Caroline Simons is statistically invisible in Dublin, Ray O’Malley barely registers in Leinster, and proxy candidate Kathy Sinnott will struggle to take the final seat in Munster.
Even the Chairman himself is languishing at at the back of the pack in Ireland Northwest, far behind Pat the Cope Gallagher and Jim Higgins – both of whom seem safe – and Marian Harkin.
Expect a whispering campaign, as Libertas goes negative in a bid to dislodge Harkin from third spot.
As usual, most coverage has ignored the margin of error, 2% at a national level, 4% when one gets down to the constituencies. One effect of this has been to write a premature obituary for Eoin Ryan, at 11% trailing behind Mary Lou McDonald (14%) in Dublin.
The truth is, that 3%gap is a statistical dead heat, and Ryan has a much better change of attracting second and third preferences than does Mary Lou.
It’s all to play for.