Political opinion polls are notoriously unreliable in this country.
Small margins make the difference between victory and defeat.
National polls simply don’t have the high resolution needed to predict the outcome.
Put simply, elections are won and lost in the margin of error.
And when it comes to a referendum on something few understand and fewer care about, its not surprising that the results vary widely from day to day.
What surprises me about the latest Lisbon poll isn’t the surge in support for the No side, but that Don’t Know figures are so low.
And yes, I do consider one in three a low number.
There are those who claim the treaty was deliberately framed in legalese, to obfuscate its intent behind dense terminology.
The trouble is, voters don’t trust advocates on either side.
The No side has been caught lying on several fronts, notably on whether the treaty will allow abortion.
Unfortunately, the best the Yes men can come up with is ‘don’t embarass us in front of the neighbours.’
And can we ignore the will of French and Dutch voters who said no to the Constitution, and are now denied a vote on its replacement?